RISK LEVEL: IMMINENT RISK
Sudan
MARCH 2022 | POPULATIONS AT RISK
Western strategies designed to address the recent upsurge of violence in the Darfur region should consider the long-term socio-economic benefits associated with implementing climate adaptation programs.
BACKGROUND:
Since 1990, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has presented periodic information that suggests that Sudan’s population – particularly those inhabiting rural areas – is highly vulnerable to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Over this period of time, the IPCC information gradually shifted from general regional findings and projections to detailed findings on Sudan and its regions.
Direct impacts included severe and protracted drought, water scarcity, and habitat loss in the West and North of the country, with damaging floods in the East. Indirect impacts included heightened and acute food insecurity, malnourishment, migration, as well as the possibility of violent conflict over scarce natural resources , especially glazing lands and water.
Sudan’s population at large has also suffered from decades of conflict and atrocities, with periods of heightened mass violence such as those seen in Darfur between 2003 and 2004. During this period, 200,000 men women and children were killed. While the Darfur crisis of 2003 attracted international analysis and policy response, this atrocity situation was preceded by two conflicts in Darfur and a North South civil war in which millions of people lost their lives either through violence or subsequent health complications and famine. The 2003 Darfur conflict has not ended, just subsided. Atrocities continue to occur in Darfur between rival groups.
In 2020, popular unrest and the arrest of President Basher al-Omar , who came to power in 1989 after a successful military coup, led to the establishment of an agreement to transition from military rule to civilian rule.
On 25 October the military in Sudan, under the leadership of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the joint civilian-military Sovereign Council, seized power by dissolving the transitional body and declaring a state of emergency. Several civilian leaders, including then Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, were arrested or placed under house arrest. Since then, hundreds of thousands of protesters continue to demonstrate across the country, demanding the reinstatement of a genuine civilian-led government. More than 80 people have been killed and hundreds injured by security forces during protests. In December the UN reported a sharp increase in sexual and gender-based violence, including rape, during mass demonstrations (GCR2P).
Sudan’s transitional authorities preceding the coup came to power after country-wide protests brought an end to then President Omar al-Bashir’s thirty-year rule in April 2019. The Sovereign Council was established in August 2019 to lead the transition to democracy and prepare for elections in July 2023. However, the power-sharing agreement remained fragile, and prior to the military takeover, there were increasing tensions between and within Sovereign Council members (GCR2P).
On 21 November ousted Prime Minister Hamdok signed a new political agreement with General Burhan. On 2 January 2022 he announced his resignation amid continuing political deadlock and mass protests (GCR2P).
Meanwhile, there has been a renewed escalation in inter-communal and localized violence since October 2021 in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, resulting in civilian casualties, destruction of property and human rights violations. According to the International Organization for Migration, inter-communal conflict has displaced over 83,000 people in Central, North and West Darfur and thousands in Kordofan since October. Violence escalated throughout 2021 despite the Sovereign Council and the leaders of the Sudan Revolutionary Front, a coalition of armed groups from Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile, signing a historic peace agreement in October 2020 aimed at ending almost two decades of armed conflict between the Bashir government and armed rebel groups (GCR2P).
Western governments (UK, US and EU) as well as the UN have deployed several strategies, individually and collectively, to encourage the reinstatement of the democratically elected leader and avoid more bloodshed.
Integrating climate change policies and thinking into the current Western strategies can help facilitate a lasting peace in Sudan.
JUMP TOOL: UK, US, EU, UN
United Kingdom | CiR2P Options
CiR2P Option 17 | Transition from military to civilian government
3 November 2021, the United States, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates have urged the restoration of the civilian government in Sudan following last week’s military coup. The four countries said in a joint statement released on Wednesday by the US Department of State. “We encourage the release of all those detained in connection with recent events and the lifting of the state of emergency,” they added.
Military regimes have a undesirable track record on environmental protection. Democracies, while unquestionably having shaky record themselves, are now leading the way on climate mitigation efforts and climate aid. Joint statements could make the point that a return to democracy in Sudan will unlock much needed drought and flood relief (climate finance) for the country.
United States | CiR2P Options
CiR2P Option 7 | Aid conditionality
21 November 2021, US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said that Sudan stood to regain badly needed international aid if it restored the civilian government. Washington has suspended about $700m in assistance to Sudan since the coup. “If the military puts this train back on its tracks and does what’s necessary, I think the support that has been very strong from the international community can resume,” said Blinken.
Should the US government decide to resume aid to Sudan, it could do so with a renewed focus on projects that help to protect vulnerable populations in regional Sudan from the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Drought tolerant seed varieties and other agriculture technologies that can sustain livelihoods would be especially useful.
CiR2P Option 26 | Apply political sanctions
12 November 2021, Army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan decided to appoint a new 14-member ruling body Sovereign Council, with himself at the head, and commander of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who was a militia leader in Darfur, as his Deputy. In response the UK, US an EU issued a statement that explained that they are ‘gravely concerned’ by this action that undermines the transitional framework.
Naming and shaming the Sudanese government could extend to identifying the compounding impact that the coup is having on populations already living on the edge of survival in Sudan. The last thing those populations need right now is government instability. Stability and climate-informed external support can offer climate exposed populations a future.
CiR2P Option 24 | Diplomatic peacemaking
2 November 2021, The US and UK ambassadors informed Hamdok that the US special envoy for the Horn of Africa, Jeffrey Feltman, would arrive on Tuesday in Khartoum ‘to pursue efforts to ease the crisis’ through mediation, facilitation and negotiation. Hamdok is demanded that the situation in Sudan return to what it was before the coup and refusing to negotiate with the military rulers.
Given Sudan is a global climate “hot-spot”, the US special envoy could consider the utility of including specialists in climate-informed mediation working with UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs.
CiR2P Option 28 | Apply economic sanctions
26 October 2021, the day after the military coup, the US government suspended $700 million in aid to Sudan. “The civilian-led transitional government should be immediately restored and represents the will of the people,” US Department of State spokesman Ned Price told reporters.
The US is a major donor of climate aid to Sudan. Aid restrictions should be strategically implemented to maximize the impact on target country decision makers while minimizing he impact on already vulnerable populations, if possible. Climate aid restrictions should follow this principle.
European Union | CiR2P Options
CiR2P Option 26 | Apply political sanctions
15 November 2021, the EU issued a statement that condemned “in the strongest terms the violence perpetrated against peaceful civilian protesters” , and said it was “very worried” by the detention of journalists. “The interventions by the military since 25 October last are undoing much of the progress achieved under the civilian-led government,” the bloc said in a statement. “This will have serious consequences for the support of the European Union.”
Political sanction can include identifying compounding impact that political and social instability can have on fragile communities and vulnerable populations that are already living on the edge of survival.
CiR2P Option 9 | Threaten economic sanctions
26 October 2021, the day after the military coup, the European Union threatened suspend financial support for Sudan if the military does not immediately return the civilian government to power. “This attempt to undermine Sudan’s transition to democracy is unacceptable. If the situation is not reversed immediately, there will be serious consequences for the EU’s commitment, including its financial support,” EU diplomatic chief Josep Borrell warned in a statement.
The EU is a major donor of climate aid to Sudan. Aid restrictions should be strategically implemented to maximize the impact on target country decision makers while minimizing he impact on already vulnerable populations, if possible. Climate aid restrictions should follow this principle.
United Nations | CiR2P Options
CiR2P Option 26 | Apply political sanctions
12 November 2021, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, appointed Adama Dieng, a former UN adviser on the prevention of genocide, to monitor “the developing human rights situation” in Sudan in close cooperation with the UN Joint Human Rights Office. On 5 November, the UN Human Rights Council requested the High Commissioner to designate an expert to monitor the violations of human rights in Sudan.
Adama Dieng’s investigations should consider the use of an updated UN atrocity risk framework that includes new categories devoted to environmental and climate change factors that contribute to the risk of atrocities.
CiR2P Option 24 | Diplomatic peacemaking
7 November 2021, Arab League mediators arrive in Khartoum for talks to try to defuse the crisis. A high-level Arab League delegation held separate talks with al-Burhan and the deposed civilian leader, Abdalla Hamdok, on “the importance of the partnership between the military and civilians” and ways to “resolve the disagreements”.
AU mediation efforts could include drawing on the expertise of the UN DPPA’s climate-informed mediation specialists.
CiR2P Option 26 | Apply political sanctions
2 November 2021, dozens of countries have called for the United Nations Human Rights Council to host a special session on Sudan. In a letter to the council president sent on behalf of 48 countries on Monday, British ambassador Simon Manley stressed the urgent need for the top UN rights body to discuss the situation in Sudan since the army’s October 25 power grab. In his letter, Manley said the call for a special session was being led by the United Kingdom, the United States and Norway, along with Germany and the government of Sudan, overthrown in the coup.
The Human Rights Council special session should include an agenda item on the intensified climate injustice and erosion of human rights caused by a combination of Sudan’s deteriorating governance and accelerating climate extremes. Good governance is the key to providing the necessary help to climate exposed populations in Sudan.
CiR2P Option 24 | Diplomatic peacemaking
1 November 2021, UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Sudan and Head of the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan, Volker Perthes, announced on Twitter that he had met with transitional government Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, who is under house arrest, and they ‘discussed options for mediation and the way forward for Sudan’, which included the involvement of regional and international actors. The UN continues its good offices role in Sudan and is supporting some of the talks.
Mediation efforts involving the United Nations should include the DPPA’s climate-informed mediation specialists.
CiR2P Option 28 | Apply economic sanctions
28 October 2021, the World Bank halted the flow of cash to Sudan in response to the military coup.
The World Bank is a major donor of climate aid to Sudan. Aid restrictions should be strategically implemented to maximize the impact on decision makers while minimizing he impact on already vulnerable populations, if possible. Climate aid restrictions should follow this principle.