CiR2P

Challenges

Atrocities are proliferating

Key indicators of atrocities show that since the “Arab Spring” in early 2011,

  • Instances of armed conflict has increased
  • The frequency and scale of atrocities have increased dramatically
  • Abuse of children in the context of armed conflict (killing, maiming and rape) appears to have increased
  • The targeting of unarmed civilians has increased
  • The number of displaced people due to armed violence is at an all time high since the end of the Cold War

Climate change is getting worse

The 2021 UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report showed that since the Industrial Revolution (1880)

  • Global surface temperatures have risen by 1.1 degrees Celsius (ºC)
  • Nine of the past 10 years have been the warmest on record
  • The global climate is now warmer than at any time in the past 100,000 years

The IPCC report is “a code red for humanity” (UN Secretary-General António Guterres, 2021)

  • Concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide has grown from 280 parts per million (ppm) to 420 ppm
  • And warming of the planet has caused an increased frequency and intensity of climate extremes including storms, floods, heatwaves and droughts – which are becoming increasingly dangerous for human populations
  • On the current trajectory, the IPCC project that average global temperatures will be 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels by 2030 and will be approaching 3°C by 2050
    • As a result, humans will face increased danger both from warming itself and from its associated impacts, such as increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The IPCC projects that in the future, some regions will experience a one in 50-year extreme heat event roughly:

    – every six years with a 1.5ºC increase

    – every three to four years with a 2ºC increase

    – nearly every year with a 4ºC increase

    Atrocity prevention policies

    Major atrocity/conflict prevention and response policy initiatives have their roots in aftermath of the Second World War with the Nuremberg trials of Nazi figures who were central to The Holocaust, the establishment of a series of UN conventions on genocide, as well as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. The next major surge of activity occurred in the aftermath of the Cold War with successive UN secretary generals championing major UN-driven conflict prevention analyses and initiatives, the establishment of two major international tribunals to prosecute the perpetrators of mass atrocities committed in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, along with a variety of conceptual contributions that challenged and reformed the idea of ‘humanitarian intervention’. 

    One such contribution commenced with the launch of the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty (ICISS) in September 2000. Australia’s former Minister for Foreign Affairs, Gareth Evans, co-Chaired the Commission and after 12 months of consultations across the globe, in December 2001, the Commission published its final report under the title, The Responsibility to Protect (R2P). Importantly, the report recast state sovereignty as a responsibility, not a right. From this foundational change, the R2P’s two basic principles emerged. First, the state itself had the primary responsibility to protect its population from four atrocity crimes (genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity). Second, should the state in question manifestly fail in that responsibility – or indeed is itself the perpetrator – the responsibility to protect the population falls to the international community. The report identified a variety of actions that the international community could take to protect populations, which were overwhelmingly of a preventive nature encompassing diplomatic, economic, legal, and security strategies, but also, as an absolute last resort in extreme situations, military intervention. In September 2005, the R2P was adopted unanimously by the UN General Assembly at the World Summit, in which all 193 Member States of the UN are represented (Photo). As the above indicators show, atrocity prevention policies require improvement.

    Global warming prevention policies

    International attempts to curb global warming through reducing carbon emissions began in 1992 with the Rio Earth Summit and the signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Since then, several major international agreements have been reached (eg in Kyoto in 1997, Copenhagen 2009, Paris 2015, and Glasgow 2021) aimed at preventing warming of the climate system considered ‘dangerous’ to humans – which in 2009 was agreed as warming that exceeded 2°C above preindustrial levels.

    In addition to these international efforts, some regions, countries, and subnational entities (eg states/provinces and cities) have established a price on carbon emissions and or developed technologies to reduce emissions in key emitting sectors; namely, energy, transport, heavy industry (manufacturing and mining), and agriculture (where methane is the major problem). Key climate adaptation policies aimed at human protection – which, similarly to mitigation policies have been negotiated though multilateral, regional and bilateral fora – have included a variety of major climate financing initiatives (although sometimes an agreement-delivery mismatch is evident), technology transfer, and Disaster Risk Reduction programs. But despite all these efforts, emissions, warming, and impacts have continued unabated.